Leo's Notes:Random - Revision history

Leo at 04:41, 18 September 2017

2017-09-18T04:41:47Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:41, 18 September 2017
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	=== Debt ===		=== Debt ===
	Debt is fundamentally deferred losses; spending the future;		Debt is fundamentally deferred losses; spending the future.

	Debt means low investment which means low productivity growth in the future. (explain?)		Arguments or justification for debt:
			* It isn't real
			* 'we' owe it to ourselves
			* No repercussions, nothing will happen

			Counter examples to these reasons are:
			* Entitlement reform (owe money to pension, then changing the amount paid out)
			* Countries/people suffering from debt
			* Past examples of sovereign defaults

			Debt means low investment which means low productivity growth in the future. (explain? Could debt cause investment now and productivity growth later?)

	Gross Canadian federal government debt grew significantly since the 1960's because of the rise of the welfare state. In the late 90's, government paid 40 cents on the dollar just for interest payments.		Gross Canadian federal government debt grew significantly since the 1960's because of the rise of the welfare state. In the late 90's, government paid 40 cents on the dollar just for interest payments.
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	The economy doesn't grow because people buy stuff, it grows because there's capital investment in improving efficiency in various things (ie. business to business). The fact people buy things is a side effect. "If you by a bunch of stuff, it's good for the economy" is a lie; giving everyone a million dollars to buy things (like stimiulus packages) will not fix the economy because the money isn't invested in improvements.		The economy doesn't grow because people buy stuff, it grows because there's capital investment in improving efficiency in various things (ie. business to business). The fact people buy things is a side effect. "If you by a bunch of stuff, it's good for the economy" is a lie; giving everyone a million dollars to buy things (like stimiulus packages) will not fix the economy because the money isn't invested in improvements.

	GDP measures are ridiculous. People who are sick adds to the GDP		GDP measures are ridiculous. People who are sick adds to the GDP.

	=== Earning & Consumption ===		=== Earning & Consumption ===
	Median earnings in full-time workers increased $53 annually between 1980 and 2005. When accounting rising taxes, inflation, and national debt*, the increase buys a lot less than before.		Median earnings in full-time workers increased $53 annually between 1980 and 2005. When accounting rising taxes, inflation, and national debt[1], the increase buys a lot less than before.

	* Higher national debt results in deferred loss of income in the future. Either the government defaults on the debt (which results in the currency being worthless), or the government raises taxes.		* 1: Higher national debt results in deferred loss of income in the future. Either the government defaults on the debt (which results in the currency being worthless), or the government raises taxes.

	Companies are also not investing due to uncertain regime changes or uncertain laws that may come into effect and are instead saving it.		Companies are also not investing due to uncertain regime changes or uncertain laws that may come into effect and are instead saving it.

			The price of shares have risen while the earnings per share (EPS) has declined. The only reason why shares continue to increase while EPS declines is if money is pumped into the stock market (ie. central banks buying up shares)

	=== Real Estate Market ===		=== Real Estate Market ===

Leo: /* Canadian Economy */

2017-08-14T04:02:35Z

Canadian Economy

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:02, 14 August 2017
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	Public sector provides a significant portion of employment in the Canadian economy. Public sector jobs typically have less job loss and slightly earlier average retirement age (this has to be higher because public sector drives higher taxes).		Public sector provides a significant portion of employment in the Canadian economy. Public sector jobs typically have less job loss and slightly earlier average retirement age (this has to be higher because public sector drives higher taxes). Public sector workers are also paid 12% more than their private-sector counterparts (including benefits) according to a study by the Fraser Institute.

	{\|		{\|
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	The public sector grows because of inefficiencies, unions, or people wanting to give jobs in exchange for votes; it rarely shrinks.		The public sector grows because of inefficiencies, unions, or people wanting to give jobs in exchange for votes; it rarely shrinks. Shrinking public sector also involves hefty severance packages which makes it unattractive to politicians.

	The middle class has been shrinking since the 1970s (Pew research center). This is typical of late stage statism because as the government grows:		The middle class has been shrinking since the 1970s (Pew research center). This is typical of late stage statism because as the government grows:
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	=== Debt ===		=== Debt ===
			Debt is fundamentally deferred losses; spending the future;

			Debt means low investment which means low productivity growth in the future. (explain?)

	Gross Canadian federal government debt grew significantly since the 1960's because of the rise of the welfare state. In the late 90's, government paid 40 cents on the dollar just for interest payments.		Gross Canadian federal government debt grew significantly since the 1960's because of the rise of the welfare state. In the late 90's, government paid 40 cents on the dollar just for interest payments.

	Household debt is a side effect of declining real household income and increasing taxes. This is made doubly worse with the government printing money and artificially keeping the interest rates low (to avoid paying interest on its own debt) since it provokes consumer spending.		Household debt is a side effect of declining real household income and increasing taxes. This is made doubly worse with the government printing money and artificially keeping the interest rates low (to avoid paying interest on its own debt) since inflation provokes consumer spending and low interest rates encourage debt. Household debt grew from 80% of personal disposable income in 1980 to over 150% in 2011.

			As of 2017, Statistics Canada (from Equifax) said the national consumer debt including mortgages is at 1.718 trillion.

			A lot of the debt is driven by the belief that a consumer good like a house is a good investment and raises in value which is not true; you can't get rich by investing in consumption good (they lose value over time). The idea that the house is like an ATM which continues to rise in value is what fools people into over leveraging themselves.

			The debt burden has grown to the point where consumer spending is slowing (is this true still?).

			The economy doesn't grow because people buy stuff, it grows because there's capital investment in improving efficiency in various things (ie. business to business). The fact people buy things is a side effect. "If you by a bunch of stuff, it's good for the economy" is a lie; giving everyone a million dollars to buy things (like stimiulus packages) will not fix the economy because the money isn't invested in improvements.

			GDP measures are ridiculous. People who are sick adds to the GDP

			=== Earning & Consumption ===
			Median earnings in full-time workers increased $53 annually between 1980 and 2005. When accounting rising taxes, inflation, and national debt*, the increase buys a lot less than before.

			* Higher national debt results in deferred loss of income in the future. Either the government defaults on the debt (which results in the currency being worthless), or the government raises taxes.

			Companies are also not investing due to uncertain regime changes or uncertain laws that may come into effect and are instead saving it.

	=== Real Estate Market ===		=== Real Estate Market ===
	In summary, prices in the Canadian real estate market has risen too much too fast due to artificially low interest rates.		In summary, prices in the Canadian real estate market has risen too much too fast due to artificially low interest rates.

			Question: How many homes are being constructed this year?

	The housing market, like any other market (such as the stock market), runs on debt with only a small percentage of real wealth; the rest is fictional. Similar to how the stock market runs on margins, the real estate runs on banks lending lots of easy money to people.		The housing market, like any other market (such as the stock market), runs on debt with only a small percentage of real wealth; the rest is fictional. Similar to how the stock market runs on margins, the real estate runs on banks lending lots of easy money to people.

	Real estate prices have gone up ~~because of~~ artificially and historically low interest rates (citation) resulting in more money being pumped into the market. With low interest rates, people have less incentive to save and more incentive to borrow more and more with the mentality that with a small percentage now, they think they own it, when in actuality the bank/lender actually owns it.		The average price of a house in the 1980s were around $60,000 and has risen to over $350,000 in 2011.

			Real estate prices have gone up for various reasons:
			* immigration
			* artificially and historically low interest rates (citation) resulting in more money being pumped into the market.
			* government likes getting people into houses since it produces lots of property taxes, especially if they are tied to multi-decade debts (people tend not to agitate for social change)

			With low interest rates, people have less incentive to save and more incentive to borrow more and more with the mentality that with a small percentage now, they think they own it, when in actuality the bank/lender actually owns it.

	This has been made worse with foreign national buyer laws such as BC's 15% foreign buyer's tax in an attempt to reduce the heated housing prices in Vancouver. Ontario also implemented a similar tax. The result of such a tax is that prices are now hidden with the cost of the house as builders and real estate companies now try and cover the taxes, resulting in an overall higher housing price.		This has been made worse with foreign national buyer laws such as BC's 15% foreign buyer's tax in an attempt to reduce the heated housing prices in Vancouver. Ontario also implemented a similar tax. The result of such a tax is that prices are now hidden with the cost of the house as builders and real estate companies now try and cover the taxes, resulting in an overall higher housing price.

	As housing prices rise year after year due to low interest rates, eventually the housing price will fall as the market corrects itself (why??). A drop in housing prices will result in many people having their wealth wiped out simply because all their wealth is tied to the debt associated with their home. The reduction of wealth will also exacerbate the slow economy.		As housing prices rise year after year due to low interest rates, eventually the housing price will fall as the market corrects itself (why??). A decline in prices will result in a very steep drop in prices as the lie that your house is your ATM is revealed. A drop in housing prices will result in many people having their wealth wiped out simply because all their wealth is tied to the debt associated with their home. The reduction of wealth will also exacerbate the slow economy.

	To avoid slowing the economy, the government and bank of Canada will try reducing the interest rates or making it negative. However, low interest rates will result in higher and higher housing prices while enabling more and more debt (both in household and government debt). Eventually, something must give.		To avoid slowing the economy, the government and bank of Canada will try reducing the interest rates or making it negative. However, low interest rates will result in higher and higher housing prices while enabling more and more debt (both in household and government debt). Eventually, something must give.

Leo at 01:33, 14 August 2017

2017-08-14T01:33:25Z

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-== Canadian Real Estate Market ==
+== Canadian Economy ==
 In summary, prices in the Canadian real estate market has risen too much too fast due to artificially low interest rates.
@@ Line 42: / Line 91: @@
 Without controlling the interest rate, printing money will not make the government that much since the economy will be at a standstill (right?). It's for this reason when government starts printing money, they also immediately take control and cap interest rates so that others will pay for it down the road.
 == See Also ==
-* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYkl3XlEneA
+* [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYkl3XlEneA There Will Be No Economic Recovery. Prepare Yourself Accordingly.]

Leo: Leo moved page Real Estate to Leo's Notes:Random without leaving a redirect

2017-08-14T00:53:56Z

Leo moved page Real Estate to Leo's Notes:Random without leaving a redirect

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:53, 14 August 2017
(No difference)

Leo at 06:41, 11 August 2017

2017-08-11T06:41:18Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:41, 11 August 2017
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	Government monopolizing and controlling currency is the most fundamental violation of property since it is forcing everyone to use their fiat/paper currency and using violence to prevent people from competing		Government monopolizing and controlling currency is the most fundamental violation of property since it is forcing everyone to use their fiat/paper currency and using violence to prevent people from competing
	in a legitimate sphere of economic activity (ie. creating a medium of exchange). Anytime government is in control of currency, massive theft is happening whether it is through printing (inflation, eroding savings, lessen incentive of having savings, which lessens the accumulation of capital, which slows down and destroys economic growth). Inflation is a crushing tax on the poor since the poor has the highest proportion of fixed expenses vs their income.		in a legitimate sphere of economic activity (ie. creating a medium of exchange). Anytime government is in control of currency, massive theft is happening whether it is through printing (inflation, eroding savings, lessen incentive of having savings, which lessens the accumulation of capital, which slows down and destroys economic growth). Inflation is a crushing tax on the poor since the poor has the highest proportion of fixed expenses vs their income. Made worse, the newly created money will be spent by people closest to the government first (ie, richest people) and gets spent near its real original dollar value until inflation hits as it trickles through the economy.

	Since the creation of the federal reserve, the US dollar has lost 95% of its value (is this still accurate?)		Since the creation of the federal reserve, the US dollar has lost 95% of its value (is this still accurate?)
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	Without controlling the interest rate, printing money will not make the government that much since the economy will be at a standstill (right?). It's for this reason when government starts printing money, they also immediately take control and cap interest rates so that others will pay for it down the road.		Without controlling the interest rate, printing money will not make the government that much since the economy will be at a standstill (right?). It's for this reason when government starts printing money, they also immediately take control and cap interest rates so that others will pay for it down the road.

			== See Also ==
			* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYkl3XlEneA

Leo at 06:34, 11 August 2017

2017-08-11T06:34:17Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:34, 11 August 2017
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	As housing prices rise year after year due to low interest rates, eventually the housing price will fall as the market corrects itself (why??). A drop in housing prices will result in many people having their wealth wiped out simply because all their wealth is tied to the debt associated with their home. The reduction of wealth will also exacerbate the slow economy.		As housing prices rise year after year due to low interest rates, eventually the housing price will fall as the market corrects itself (why??). A drop in housing prices will result in many people having their wealth wiped out simply because all their wealth is tied to the debt associated with their home. The reduction of wealth will also exacerbate the slow economy.

	To avoid slowing the economy, the government and bank of Canada will try reducing the interest rates or making it negative. However, ~~this~~ will result in higher and higher housing prices. Eventually, something ~~will break (why? What are the consequences of perpetually artificially low interest rates?)~~		To avoid slowing the economy, the government and bank of Canada will try reducing the interest rates or making it negative. However, low interest rates will result in higher and higher housing prices while enabling more and more debt (both in household and government debt). Eventually, something must give.

	In a free market, interest rates are determined by the market: During booms, interest rates will go down as there is more money readily available in the economy. During busts, interest rates go up when there is less money available.

	If the interest rates rises, the housing prices will drop even more significantly when people are forced to refinance their home and cannot afford it.		If the interest rates rises, the housing prices will drop even more significantly when people are forced to refinance their home and cannot afford it.

Leo: /* Canadian Real Estate Market */

2017-08-11T06:29:56Z

Canadian Real Estate Market

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 == Canadian Real Estate Market ==
-In summary, prices in the Canadian real estate market has risen too much too fast and the market will correct itself by having the prices go back down. Government and the bank of Canada will try to keep the real estate prices... (how?)
+In summary, prices in the Canadian real estate market has risen too much too fast due to artificially low interest rates.
 The housing market, like any other market (such as the stock market), runs on debt with only a small percentage of real wealth; the rest is fictional. Similar to how the stock market runs on margins, the real estate runs on banks lending lots of easy money to people.
@@ Line 7: / Line 7: @@
 Real estate prices have gone up because of artificially and historically low interest rates (citation) resulting in more money being pumped into the market. With low interest rates, people have less incentive to save and more incentive to borrow more and more with the mentality that with a small percentage now, they think they own it, when in actuality the bank/lender actually owns it.
-BC has a 15% foreign buyer's tax to reduce the incentive for foreign buyers (chinese) from buying in the hopes to reduce the heated prices in Vancouver. Ontario also implemented a similar tax. This tax has so far not helped the prices since builders/real estate companies now has an incentive to pay the fees. This only results in a higher overall price of all the real estate.
+This has been made worse with foreign national buyer laws such as BC's 15% foreign buyer's tax in an attempt to reduce the heated housing prices in Vancouver. Ontario also implemented a similar tax. The result of such a tax is that prices are now hidden with the cost of the house as builders and real estate companies now try and cover the taxes, resulting in an overall higher housing price.
-When interest rates rises, housing prices will drop as the market corrects itself after the long period of low interest rates. A drop in housing prices will result in many people having their wealth wiped out simply because all their wealth is tied to the debt associated with their home. The reduction of wealth will also exacerbate the economy.
+As housing prices rise year after year due to low interest rates, eventually the housing price will fall as the market corrects itself (why??). A drop in housing prices will result in many people having their wealth wiped out simply because all their wealth is tied to the debt associated with their home. The reduction of wealth will also exacerbate the slow economy.
-To avoid this, the government and bank of Canada will do whatever it can to prevent a crash by reducing the interest rates or making it negative. However, this will result in higher and higher housing prices. Eventually, something will break (why? What are the consequences of perpetually artificially low interest rates?)
+To avoid slowing the economy, the government and bank of Canada will try reducing the interest rates or making it negative. However, this will result in higher and higher housing prices. Eventually, something will break (why? What are the consequences of perpetually artificially low interest rates?)

Leo: draft1

2017-08-11T05:13:36Z

draft1

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:13, 11 August 2017
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	In summary, prices in the Canadian real estate market has risen too much too fast and the market will correct itself by having the prices go back down. Government and the bank of Canada will try to keep the real estate prices... (how?)		In summary, prices in the Canadian real estate market has risen too much too fast and the market will correct itself by having the prices go back down. Government and the bank of Canada will try to keep the real estate prices... (how?)

	The housing market, like any other market (such as the stock market), runs on debt with only a small percentage of real wealth; the rest is fictional. ~~Stocks~~ runs on margins ~~while~~ real estate runs on banks lending lots of easy money to people.		The housing market, like any other market (such as the stock market), runs on debt with only a small percentage of real wealth; the rest is fictional. Similar to how the stock market runs on margins, the real estate runs on banks lending lots of easy money to people.

	Real estate prices have gone up because of artificially and historically low interest rates (citation) resulting in more money being pumped into the market. With low interest rates, people have less incentive to save and more incentive to borrow more and more with the mentality that with a small percentage now, they think they own it, when in actuality the bank/lender actually owns it.		Real estate prices have gone up because of artificially and historically low interest rates (citation) resulting in more money being pumped into the market. With low interest rates, people have less incentive to save and more incentive to borrow more and more with the mentality that with a small percentage now, they think they own it, when in actuality the bank/lender actually owns it.

	~~housing~~ prices ~~going down 25% will result~~ in ~~many people being wiped out~~		BC has a 15% foreign buyer's tax to reduce the incentive for foreign buyers (chinese) from buying in the hopes to reduce the heated prices in Vancouver. Ontario also implemented a similar tax. This tax has so far not helped the prices since builders/real estate companies now has an incentive to pay the fees. This only results in a higher overall price of all the real estate.
	~~- government and bank of Canada will prevent~~ a ~~crash like this~~
	~~- unfortunately the price~~ has ~~gone too high and~~ the ~~market will balance itself,~~ prices ~~will have~~ to ~~come down~~

	~~The real driver~~ in ~~real estate~~ prices ~~boils down~~ to the ~~interest rate~~.		When interest rates rises, housing prices will drop as the market corrects itself after the long period of low interest rates. A drop in housing prices will result in many people having their wealth wiped out simply because all their wealth is tied to the debt associated with their home. The reduction of wealth will also exacerbate the economy.

	~~The primary indicator~~ of ~~the real estate market is~~ the interest ~~rate~~		To avoid this, the government and bank of Canada will do whatever it can to prevent a crash by reducing the interest rates or making it negative. However, this will result in higher and higher housing prices. Eventually, something will break (why? What are the consequences of perpetually artificially low interest rates?)

	~~BC has a 15% foreign buyer's tax to reduce the incentive for foreign buyers (chinese) from buying~~ in ~~the hopes to reduce the heated~~ prices ~~in Vancouver~~. ~~Ontario also implemented a similar tax. This tax has so far not helped the prices since builders/real estate companies now has an incentive to pay~~ the ~~fees. This only results in a higher overall price~~ of ~~all the real estate.~~

Leo: draft

2017-08-11T04:54:10Z

draft

New page

== Canadian Real Estate Market ==
In summary, prices in the Canadian real estate market has risen too much too fast and the market will correct itself by having the prices go back down. Government and the bank of Canada will try to keep the real estate prices... (how?)

The housing market, like any other market (such as the stock market), runs on debt with only a small percentage of real wealth; the rest is fictional. Stocks runs on margins while real estate runs on banks lending lots of easy money to people.

Real estate prices have gone up because of artificially and historically low interest rates (citation) resulting in more money being pumped into the market. With low interest rates, people have less incentive to save and more incentive to borrow more and more with the mentality that with a small percentage now, they think they own it, when in actuality the bank/lender actually owns it.

housing prices going down 25% will result in many people being wiped out
- government and bank of Canada will prevent a crash like this
- unfortunately the price has gone too high and the market will balance itself, prices will have to come down

The real driver in real estate prices boils down to the interest rate.

The primary indicator of the real estate market is the interest rate

BC has a 15% foreign buyer's tax to reduce the incentive for foreign buyers (chinese) from buying in the hopes to reduce the heated prices in Vancouver. Ontario also implemented a similar tax. This tax has so far not helped the prices since builders/real estate companies now has an incentive to pay the fees. This only results in a higher overall price of all the real estate.